| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | Robert Morris | 45-3 | 1571.4 | +0.0 | 1571.4 | 60.1% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Ohio | 10-17 | 1571.4 | -32.7 | 1538.7 | 46.2% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Pittsburgh | 31-24 | 1538.7 | +26.8 | 1565.5 | 61.3% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | Kansas | 10-41 | 1565.5 | -32.6 | 1532.9 | 46.0% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | Utah | 14-48 | 1532.9 | -48.6 | 1484.3 | 49.4% |
| 7 | Oct 3 2025 | L | BYU | 24-38 | 1484.3 | -10.8 | 1473.5 | 16.5% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | UCF | 13-45 | 1473.5 | -45.5 | 1428.0 | 61.3% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | L | TCU | 17-23 | 1428.0 | -19.4 | 1408.6 | 17.7% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | W | Houston | 45-35 | 1408.6 | +71.7 | 1480.3 | 20.2% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | W | Colorado | 29-22 | 1480.3 | +35.8 | 1516.1 | 50.1% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | Arizona State | 23-25 | 1516.1 | -14.8 | 1501.3 | 22.4% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | Texas Tech | 0-49 | 1501.3 | -16.9 | 1484.4 | 15.3% |